Thursday, November 18, 2010

It was a GAME!!!

One of the most maddening things about playing sim city on the super nintendo was how when you took a loan to build the city I would always reach a point I had no cash and I would lose the game. THE GAME. That means there is more accountability on a game then in real life..... that is humorous. The state didn't bail me out, nor did the Fed. Nowadays in real life we just kick it further and further down the road. One day the rock with grow too big to kick and we will just be stuck.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

The No-Grow Zone and the new American Civil War

Another post in which I am grossly under read and my idea is very underdeveloped. The elections have set off another wave of predictions and indications of our future. The reference to the No-Grow Zone is a reference to the Euro Zone and the problems faced with the PIGS (Portugal, Iceland, Greece, and Spain) When Greece reneged on their financial obligations they faced a serious debt crises. Who picked up the tag? Those more financially conservative countries, notably Germany. This set off a firestorm of blame and anger with nationalistic zeal with Greece recalling Nazi Fascism and Germany posting animations of Greek statues motioning vulgarities. The relation?

Today America is in a very real and a very hotly debated financial hail storm. Bush, Obama, Clinton, Reagan. It is deeper than that, pretty much everyone is to blame generally. The point is is that major decision and sacrifices have to be made now. So..... lets see back to the no-grow zone. The recent elections pointed to a movement away from government control and intervention on economical and fiscal matters. Lower spending, decentralized government structures. Except in California, in fact California rejected some movements to temporarily suspend their dramatic and expensive initiative to cut carbon by 30% in 10 years. Just like the health care bill parts that are yet to be enacted the costs for this legislation is being front loaded and effecting the economy now. California has and is refusing to enact legislation that puts some environment and social goals on hold until it heals from the onslaught. To put it in perspective the wounds that are being widened and added, California is adding debt of $25 million a day, it currently has a 12.5% unemployment rate and accounts for nearly one-third of the nation's welfare participants (when compared to having 12% of the population that means Californians have nearly 3 times more people on welfare than the national average). The legislation (AB 32) to cut carbon is going to RAISE the already high cost of living in California by $7,857 per year. California also taxes high with having the nation's highest sales tax rate and the third-highest state income tax. How is it then when a state is hemorrhaging financially that it passes these dramatic climate legislation? It couldn't be evil businesses like in Texas could it? No it must be because of the good tree-loving unemployed hearts of Californians. WRONG, AB 32 was kept in tact while hedge managers, solar companies, and alternate energy companies pumped three times as much campaign dollars into upholding the legislation then other energy companies. Hedge managers being involved in this is the evilest, vilest move of all since many are actually shorting energy companies and betting on their DECLINE in California. Californians suffer, hedge fund managers gain, this my friend is California, confused and blinded under liberal agendas and do good initiatives. California without knowing it, is engaged in a form of class warfare. Clean energy companies are pushing legislation that hurts the common people for their own gains. It is liberals, climateers, and alternative energy companies working together, for different purposes, to get their personal needs answered while drowning the state in debt and costs. So while the nation is moving quickly in one direction towards less government, lower taxes, reducing deficits, and making strides towards less regulation and a more business friendly environment, California is doing the opposite. We all know this can't last, so when the divide is so dramatic what will happen when California goes belly up? Or when California face a several fiscal catastrophe? Who will rush to the rescue? Texas? After all that California has done and said and will do in order to establish some egotistical identity as a greater, kinder, and moral superior to Texas? Ads frequently displayed Cowboy hat wearing, smoking, "evil" business men destroying California. Obviously these were references to eViL Texas who is STEALING jobs from kind peace loving Californians. All this is driven by greed by those companies and the payer is not customers who choose to buy, but tax payers who will have to pay the bill in the future?

The large ideological shift is becoming increasingly split as well across races. As the old majority (white) is fading as a segment of the population it's importance is fading. A recent article pointed out that blacks voted 90% for democrats, Latinos 64%, and Asian-Americans 56%. Whites on the other hand voted 60% for Republicans. I am not overly alarmed as to the voting except to point out two important points. Minorities generally align for Democratic and Whites for Republicans and blacks vote for Democrats 90% of the time. The Republicans are cited as a racist party because it is mostly made up from White voters but that is at 60% of the vote! Compared to 90%? I don't feel either way my vote is swayed by race, it is swayed by IDEALS! Politics is money. Let us be honest. So while states swing back and forth based on economics or social issues let us be honest and look at why and when. When the economy is good we look at social issues and debate topics. Then back to economics and so forth. Whites swing widely on these issues. When it comes time to vote on economics swing voters vote to make difficult decisions and fix the economy. States higher in minority population percentages are less affected by these changes. When viewing the California representative map, large Hispanic areas maintained their Democratic holds. South Eastern states did as well influenced largely by minority voting as well. The dangerous civil war reference is classic of me potentially crossing a line. Ideologies are sharply dividing coinciding with racial portions in those areas. Unfortunately some of those states are have 2 things in common. High minority ratios and high debt ratios. As the economical and political landscape changes one of my greatest fears is race will become more divided and the day will come when State debt becomes a national issue. When heartland states that were fiscally conservative like Germany will with great anger will stop funding Californian spending. The moves will divide upon political battle fields which are becoming more and more racially divided. I am not speaking of violence but of deep resentment. Economic problems breeding social issues. The new American Civil War.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

The Kiss of Death

No, this is not a post about actual kissing. So put those teenage fantasies behind you and focus for a moment because this is something I have been thinking about for a while. First you need to understand what some financial analysts and accountants call the kiss of death. It has to do with cash flows. There are three different cash flows. Finance, Operating, and Investing. Finance principally moves by loans and interest, operating by the cash flow of day to day operating, and investing by the purchase of land, capital and the likes. That was a very simplified definition but it will suffice for the example.

Some will argue that our government is ruining our country with their free spending ways and egregious debt intake. They are mortgaging our future. They are selling the future of our children. They are putting us in bondage. The government is driving our attitudes some will say. The government is spending without constraint so what do you expect the everyday citizens to do? Start saving like crazy? Who affects the decisions of who? Where does it start. Is it the mindless spending of the people? Or the careless spending of the government?

Both are mired in the problem. Personal savings rates for American households are abysmally low. In the last couple of years they have even been in the negative. The current depression has forced Americans to start being more prudent, but to be honest there isn't extra money lying around for people to save. So Americans are spending and not saving, plundering their retirement accounts, and losing their #1 investment (their homes) while looking to the government to save them. The real problem is less with the current mindset and more with the mindset of the the pre-depression 2008 American whose savings rates were negative.

A perfect example about how the government is leading the bad behavior is our beloved government of Arizona. In the financing category it would be hard to believe you didn't know we were mired in debt and threatening to shut down almost every stinking year. This year's propositions noted several moves to plunder other account kept separate from the general state account for other spending initiatives. This is much like Americans moves to pilfer their retirement savings. So let us go ahead and put a + for cash flow for financing. Operating..... Really? Is it a real question about whether or not tax income is greater than spending? Not even close. I have a definite - for operating. And in the most amusing and interesting section we even have a plus in investing. Now before we start to say that is a good thing think of this. When you purchase equipment that signifies on outflow of cash, therefore a negative. When you need money for spending you sell assets. Our state actually sold the state capitol building and are now leasing it in order to keep up with spending. This triggers a positive in the current account. Now that wasn't this year, but if you do the addition of the + for financing, to the - for operating, and + for investing you have.... +_+ The kiss of death.

So we clamor as Americans. What a horrible example they are setting for us, and we once again begin the chicken or the egg argument. The government is making us act like this, no it is the people that are making our government bail them out! When are we going to quit switching sides of the fence? First we claim the government is of and for the people, then claim the government is not of the people at all. It is a separate entity that should be held to a higher standard than we hold ourselves. If we as individuals are debt ridden and going through the perils of foreclosure, wouldn't our government be as well. Isn't it made up OF the people? It is OF the people, and elected BY the PEOPLE, I am not surprised they are reflecting our individuals attitudes and habits. If our attitudes and habits were grossly different, we wouldn't stand for this at all and neither would our elected politicians. So until we start being prudent, the change really still starts with us. Save more than you spend, put aside for a rainy day, and don't wait for other people to take care of others and make a difference. If we start doing it, and not stand for our government not doing it, that will make all the difference.